What’s Left for Israel to ‘Win’ in Gaza?

Israel’s declaration of the death of Hamas’ top military leader, Mohammed Deif, on Thursday, the 300th day of the war in Gaza, marks the latest setback for the Palestinian group just days after the killing of its political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, and months after the claimed killing of Deif’s deputy, Marwan Issa.

While Hamas’ head in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is believed to still be leading operations against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the decimated leadership chart has served Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s wartime goals of inflicting a devastating defeat on the group’s military and political leadership.

Now, even with threats to Israel of imminent vengeance from Iran and its Axis of Resistance on multiple fronts over recent attacks from abroad, questions surround Hamas’ continued capacity to mount a significant threat to Israel as the movement regroups into smaller insurgent units.

“My assessment is that the horses have already left the stable,” Or Yissachar, vice president of research and content at the Israel Defense and Security Forum, told Newsweek. “Hamas has already pulled the October 7 rabbit out of the hat, and has almost no significant organizational capabilities left.”

Still, he argued the group remained capable of restoring territorial control, though its ability to repel Israel’s presence had been severely denigrated.

“It now relies heavily on its popular support in Gaza, and its remaining fighting force currently dismantled into squads and cells rather than entire battalions,” Yissachar said. “If Israel leaves Gaza, then Hamas with its remaining municipalities and fighting force can pretty easily take it back over, but right now its range of response is extremely limited.”

Data reported by online tracker Rocket Alert showed that just a single alert was issued over threat of rockets fired from Gaza over the past week, an all-time low since the conflict began with Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel in October.

With the threat from Gaza diminished, Yissachar said that the focus for Israel would be in further clearing out the group’s stronghold in Rafah and applying further pressure on what remains of the group’s pre-October 7 leadership, all in the interest of securing the remaining objective of securing the return of more than 100 hostages still believed to be held in Gaza.

“In Gaza, only leader Yahya Sinwar is left on the checklist,” Yissachar said. “The more Hamas leaders feel the noose tightening around their neck, the more prone they will be to accept a deal in conditions favorable to Israel.”

The IDF declined Newsweek‘s request for comment. Newsweek also reached out to Netanyahu’s office for comment.

Hamas, for its part, has long demonstrated a capability to replenish its ranks, including senior leadership positions. Before the war sparked by the group’s surprise attack on Israel in October, top officials such as Deif ascended due to the killing of their predecessors in past Israeli operations.

Hamas spokesperson Basem Naim told Newsweek in February that “the leaders are an essential element in the battle and achieving victory over the enemy” and that, “assassinations may temporarily affect the course of the battle, but there are a number of alternative leaders capable of managing the battle with the same efficiency.”

Asked on Thursday if this remained his assessment in the wake of news of the deaths of Deif, Haniyeh, Issa and others in recent months, Naim told Newsweek this is “true.”

Michael Milshtein, former adviser on Palestinian Affairs at Israeli Defense Ministry’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) and head of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate’s Department of Palestinian Affairs, also noted how “Hamas has long proved the capacity to recover itself.”

“During its history, Hamas lost a lot of senior leaders but always succeeds to recover and fill the vacuum which was created by new leaders and commanders,” Milshtein, now head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle East and African Studies, told Newsweek.

“I’m quite sure Hamas already appointed new commanders instead of those who were killed,” he added, “and recruited hundreds or more as new members out of the huge group of refugees in the Gaza Strip.”

He argued that “the experience of the new commanders is limited compared to those who were killed, but since they act in the light of radical ideology, they are full of motivation and continue leading the military wing,” officially known as the Al-Qassam Brigades.

Now this effort has been refitted into waging war using smaller-scale formations that still pose a significant threat to Israeli troops within Gaza.

“We must also remember Hamas is a very flexible organization and can adjust itself very quickly to new conditions,” Milshtein said. “After the damage to the brigades of Hamas the organization adapts methods of guerrilla and act with small units (cells or platoons) instead of battalions.”

In light of Hamas’ staying power as the most influential Palestinian movement in Gaza, with its popularity also eclipsing that of the Palestinian National Authority and other factions in the West Bank, he argued that a decisive victory for Israel remained distant.

“Ten months after the war began, Hamas is still the prominent power in Gaza, controls the public sphere and prevent the growing of any new alternative,” Milshtein said. “Although Hamas suffered a lot, we can’t say it is close to giving up or collapsing.”

“Unfortunately, Israel is still far from implementing the strategic goals of erasing the military or governmental capacities of Hamas,” he added. “This goal has to be done by occupation of all the Gaza Strip and stay there for a long time, and it doesn’t seem Israel right now has the willingness or capacities to implement this strategic goal.”

Amid the uncertainty that continues to surround the conflict, both sides have continued to assert their willingness to stay in the battle for the long haul despite the growing toll.

After the initial Hamas-led attack against Israel killed what Israeli officials estimate to be 1,200 people, the majority of them civilians, the IDF has counted 324 killed in the ensuing war in Gaza. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Health Ministry based in the Hamas-led territory has reported nearly 39,500 killed, mostly women and children, in Gaza.

Jonathan Conricus, senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and former IDF spokesperson, argued that costs were particularly mounting for Hamas.

“Hamas’ military capabilities have been significantly degraded by the IDF during 10 months of fighting, and the organization does not possess any strategic capabilities to hit Israel,” Conricus told Newsweek. “It may be able to fill positions and appoint new and inexperienced people, but the long-term damage to Hamas is substantial.”

For Israel, too, however, he saw a long road ahead in changing the reality of the ground in Gaza, an effort he said would include the need to revamp the education system and remove the influence of international organizations that Israel views as sympathetic to Hamas, such as the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA).

“Israel has made significant advances towards implementing the first goal of the war, to dismantle Hamas’ military and political control over Gaza,” Conricus said. “However, several years of low intensity fighting and deradicalization of Gaza remain.”

Meanwhile, observers have warned that the already devastating war in Gaza may yet be overshadowed by an even larger-scale conflict looming as Iran and its allies promise to retaliate for Haniyeh’s death in Iran and the killing of leading Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut less than a full day earlier.

“Recently, we have proven that the State of Israel knows how to defensively deal with threats, and to respond powerfully on the offense,” IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a statement shared with Newsweek by the IDF’s press office. “Also today, conceited words were heard from terrorist officials in the region. We have shown our determination and resilience throughout the war.”

“Our defensive systems are very good,” he added. “Additionally, we have international partners who have increased their forces in the region to assist us against the threats.”