Fact Check: Trump Boasts He Is ‘Leading Big With the Catholic Vote’

Former President Donald Trump’s speech at the Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner in New York City on Thursday night was met with a mixture of boos and applause as he attacked Vice President Kamala Harris, her husband Doug Emhoff and others.

The Al Smith dinner, named for the nation’s first Catholic presidential candidate, is considered a highlight of the election campaign. Politicians from both sides of the aisle break bread and trade good-natured jabs at the charity dinner, which is aimed at raising funds for women and children in need.

During his speech, Trump told the crowd that he was “leading big” among Catholic voters, a claim not entirely supported by available data.

The Claim

At the Al Smith dinner in New York City on October 17, Trump said: “And all polls are indicating I’m leading big with the Catholic vote, as I should be. As I should be.”

The Facts

While Trump leads in some polls among Catholic voters, he is not leading in “all polls” and his claim that he has a “big” advantage is debatable.

A poll released this week by New Catholic Reporter showed Trump was ahead by five percentage points in the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

While Trump led by 16 percentage points among white Catholic voters, the data also showed that seven out of 10 Hispanic Catholics and more than three-quarters of Black Catholics preferred Harris.

Data from last month by Pew Research showed similar results. In a survey conducted from August to September, Pew found Catholic respondents overall were likelier to vote for Trump “if the 2024 presidential election were held today,” leading by five percentage points. However, the results split significantly between subgroups, with 61 percent of white Catholics picking Trump and 65 percent of Hispanic Catholics choosing Harris.

Conversely, the same month, EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research showed a Harris lead among Catholic voters polled, with 50 percent supporting the Democratic presidential nominee, 43 percent for Trump and 6 percent undecided.

Other data suggests Trump’s lead among Catholics may have declined since President Joe Biden stood down as the Democratic presidential candidate. Pew Research from April found Trump had voter support among 55 percent of Catholic respondents. This fell to 52 percent in Pew’s September 2024 survey.

So, while Trump may be able to claim an advantage, its significance seems debatable.

Newsweek has contacted a media representative for Trump via email for comment.

In mid-September, Pope Francis criticized both U.S. presidential candidates over policies on abortion and migration.

“Both are against life, be it the one who kicks out migrants or the one who [supports] killing babies,” the pope said during a news conference on the papal plane, referring to Trump and Harris respectively.

“Both are against life,” Francis reiterated.

The Ruling

Needs Context.

A poll released this week said Trump led by five percentage points among Catholic voters in the seven battleground states. Another from September showed a lead of five percentage points among Catholic respondents.

However, Harris had a significant lead among Black and Catholic Hispanics within those surveys. At least one other poll conducted in September showed Harris ahead overall among Catholics by seven percentage points.

While Trump has the advantage in some surveys, his description of that lead as “big” seems a matter of interpretation.

FACT CHECK BY Newsweek’s Fact Check team