President Donald Trump’s approval rating among independent voters has fallen by 18 points over the past year, according to Economist/YouGov polling.
The latest figures from early May 2026 point to a sustained weakness with a crucial swing voting bloc ahead of the midterms.
Independent voters—often decisive in competitive elections—are increasingly driving Trump’s overall negative approval trend.
Why It Matters
Independent voters have historically played a pivotal role in determining the outcome of U.S. elections, particularly in closely contested congressional districts and swing states.
A sustained collapse in support among this group can signal broader electoral vulnerability, even when partisan bases remain relatively stable.
What To Know
The latest Economist/YouGov poll, conducted May 1–4, 2026, surveyed 1,573 U.S. adult citizens using an online panel, with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
It found Trump’s overall approval rating at 36 percent, with 58 percent disapproving, for a net approval (those who approve minus those who disapprove) of -22.
Among independents, the same poll recorded 25 percent approval and 63 percent disapproval, yielding a net approval rating of -38.
That marks an 18-point drop from May 2025, when Trump’s net approval among independents stood at -20 in an Economist/YouGov poll conducted May 2–5, 2025, which surveyed 1,850 U.S. adult citizens, also with a 3.4-point margin of error.
The longer-running trend line shows a steady weakening across 2025 before hitting a low point in November 2025, when Trump’s net approval among independents reached -47.
While some partial recovery followed into early 2026, the most recent data indicates renewed slippage, leaving the president well underwater with this group.
Overall approval has also deteriorated during the same period, though less dramatically. Net approval among all adults fell from -10 in May 2025 to -22 in May 2026, with declines accelerating into the spring.
The divergence between the total electorate and independents underscores how much of the recent movement has been concentrated among voters without strong party alignment.
Taken together, the data suggests a consistent pattern: independents have moved more decisively against Trump over the past year than the electorate as a whole, and any stabilisation in early 2026 appears to have been temporary.
What Do Polling Aggregates Say?
Polling averages point in the same direction. According to the Silver Bulletin tracker updated May 8, 2026, by Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson, Trump’s net approval rating reached a new second-term low of -18.9.
Among U.S. adults specifically, the figure is even lower at -20.6, with roughly 48 percent of respondents strongly disapproving of his job performance.
Other aggregated measures echo this picture. The RealClearPolitics average from April 20 to May 7 shows Trump with 40.5 percent approval and 56.3 percent disapproval, a spread of -15.8.
Meanwhile, CNN’s Poll of Polls—which averages multiple recent national surveys of U.S. adults conducted between April 16 and April 30—puts Trump’s approval at 35 percent and disapproval at 63 percent – a net approval rating of -28.
These averages reinforce the signal from individual surveys: Trump remains significantly underwater in public opinion, with little indication of a sustained rebound.
Aggregates tend to smooth out single-poll volatility, suggesting the underlying trend is both durable and broad-based.
Response From Trump and the White House
Trump has rejected negative interpretations of his polling, telling Newsmax in a recent phone interview that his absence from ballots is distorting perceptions, adding that he believes electoral results would be decisive if tested directly.
“It is a problem I’m not on the ballot. Everyone says if I was on a ballot, we’d win in a landslide. I have some of the best poll numbers I’ve ever had,” he said.
White House spokesperson Davis Ingle has repeatedly argued that the 2024 election outcome remains the most meaningful measure of public support, pointing to Trump’s electoral victory and describing his policy agenda as “popular and commonsense.”
Ingle also said the administration is focused on economic issues, including jobs, inflation, and housing, and described the president’s record as historically significant.
However, the latest polling data suggests that, at least for now, public opinion—particularly among independents—continues to move in the opposite direction.
