California is bracing for a dry year as the Department of Water Resources (DWR) announced on Monday an initial State Water Project (SWP) allocation of just 5 percent of requested supplies for 2025.
The SWP, a critical lifeline for the state, supplies water to 29 public agencies serving 27 million state residents. The conservative forecast reflects concerns about California’s water outlook amid a warming climate and the possibility of another La Niña year, which is often drier than usual.
This isn’t the be-all and end-all, though. The initial allocation for Water Year 2024 was just 10 percent but eventually rose to 40 percent after a wetter than expected season.
The Dos Amigos pumping plant pushes water uphill on the San Luis Canal, which is part of the California Aqueduct system. Despite some promising rainfall in late November, the state’s initial water allocations for 2025… The Dos Amigos pumping plant pushes water uphill on the San Luis Canal, which is part of the California Aqueduct system. Despite some promising rainfall in late November, the state’s initial water allocations for 2025 are just 5 percent of what has been requested.
Sundry Photography/Getty
“We need to prepare for any scenario, and this early in the season we need to take a conservative approach to managing our water supply,” DWR Director Karla Nemeth said in a statement. “Our wettest months of the season are still to come.”
Newsweek contacted the DWR via email for further comment.
The allocation was determined before a series of intense late-November storms brought above-average rainfall to Northern California. Powered by bomb cyclones and atmospheric rivers—long, narrow corridors of water vapor that deliver heavy precipitation—these storms boosted reservoir levels statewide.
Lake Oroville, California’s second-largest reservoir, saw water levels surge by more than 18 feet in late November.
“While Water Year 2025 has had a promising start, California needs consistent rain and snow throughout the winter months that will continue to supply reservoirs,” Michael Anderson, California’s state climatologist, previously told Newsweek.
Before the November storms, the state’s hydrological year began on a dry and warm note. This followed record-breaking summer heat and dry conditions in early October, leaving soils parched and reducing the runoff efficiency of early precipitation.
Soil moisture is crucial to maintaining the water supply in California. If the soil is too dry, snowpack runoff in the spring will be absorbed by the ground instead of heading to the reservoirs.
California’s water future hinges on the critical months of December through February, which historically deliver half the state’s annual precipitation.
“Should dry conditions return, we may end up with a below-average water year,” Anderson said.
The DWR plans to reassess allocations monthly as new data on rainfall, snowpack and runoff becomes available. A final allocation decision is expected by May or June.
Until then, Californians will be urged to prepare for potential water shortages as the state navigates another year of unpredictable extremes.
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