Donald Trump Gets Bad News About His Trials

A new poll out of one of a handful of 2024 battleground states shows Donald Trump’s chances of electoral victory hang on his ongoing legal battles and a potential conviction.

The former president is currently leading his Republican opponents by large polling margins as he attempts to avenge his 2020 loss to Joe Biden and be elected to a second term in 2024. He will have to complete the task while being bombarded with several legal challenges, including allegedly mishandling classified documents and interfering in the results of the last presidential election.

Biden is facing rough waters as the incumbent gearing up for reelection. A new NBC News poll released Sunday showed Biden with the lowest approval rating of his presidency (40 percent). In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Biden trails Trump by 4 percentage points among voters aged 18 to 36.

Younger voters turned out for Biden more than Trump in the 2020 election, as well as for Democrats in the 2022 midterms, though the ongoing war between Israel-Hamas in Gaza has opened the current president to new criticisms among the youth voter base.

A poll of 600 likely Michigan voters conducted by EPIC-MRA between November 10 and 16 mirrors similar polls in other battlegrounds, showing Trump with a lead against Biden (46 percent to 41 percent) in the hypothetical 2024 rematch. The polls skew to more of a toss-up when Trump’s legal future is considered.

Roughly 44 percent of respondents are less likely to vote for Trump if he is convicted of a crime before the election, noted pollster Bernie Porn, although most of those respondents were not Trump supporters in the first place.

The more alarming prospect for the Trump campaign could be the number of polled Trump supporters who said they are less likely to vote for him if he is convicted, decreasing his support from 46 percent to 40 percent—or one percentage point below Biden.

Nearly six in 10 voters polled also said that if Trump is convicted of any crime, he should have to serve jail time.

The same poll showed former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley defeating Biden in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup, 47 percent to 36 percent. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer also has more favorable numbers among the surveyed Michigan electorate than Biden.

The respondents were composed of 35 percent of conservatives, 34 percent of moderates, 21 percent of liberals, and 10 percent of undecided/refused to identify.

“Biden’s age and Trump’s legal troubles are important, especially if Trump gets convicted of a crime before the election, but it is likely that Trump could be successful in pushing those past the election,” Porn told Newsweek via email. “A more telling issue at this time is concern about inflation and the economy.”

The poll shows a lack of optimism in the state of the economy, with only 19 percent of respondents saying the economy is better now than when Trump was in office. Approximately 36 percent and 43 percent, respectively, said the economy is worse or about the same.

Until voters’ concerns regarding inflation and their pocketbooks can be alleviated, Porn said that Biden—who he says has accomplishments to run on, though “Bidenomics” is not one of them—is facing a continuous uphill battle with the populace.

That could turn, he noted, if prices at the grocery store follow price drops at gas pumps.

“Biden may be well-advised to focus more on supporting actions to cut costs for voters, such as childcare and healthcare, and also attack Trump and the GOP for opposing these cost-saving measures,” Porn added. “Also, it is possible that inflation will drop enough to make it less of an issue as the election nears.”

Another Michigan voter-centric poll of 600 likely voters conducted in October by the Marketing Resource Group (MRG) showed the state’s voters with an overall abhorrence towards the two likely candidates representing each main political party.

The poll found that just 24 percent looked forward to a rematch while 67 percent wanted other representation.

“No one wants it but especially the Democrat and independents,” MRG President Jenell Leonard told Newsweek via phone. “The Democrats are really looking for an alternative. They don’t have faith in their candidate and don’t have the confidence he can win.”

That poll, conducted between October 2-8 and before the conflict in the Middle East erupted, showed Trump up 7 percentage points.

Leonard said that if Biden and Trump face off again, issues like age and legal challenges could be compounded by both candidates’ actual records within the White House.

But the trends Biden is experiencing are a cause for concern for Democrats, she said, namely because it shows a lack of faith in his ability to win again. Leonard even encouraged the party to look to its candidate bench as a potential backup plan.

“I it’s Biden vs. Trump, the biggest concern is on the Democratic side,” she said. “If you don’t have your badge of support it’s hard to message in the middle in order to win an election. Trump has a strong base and Biden’s is waning.”

A poll published on November 9 by Morning Consult showed Trump leading Biden in six of seven swing states, including Arizona (+4 advantage), Georgia (+9), Nevada (+4), North Carolina (+9), Pennsylvania (+3) and Wisconsin (+2).

The lone state shown to be led by Biden was Michigan, where the sitting president has a 1-point advantage against Trump.

Newsweek reached out to the White House and Trump campaign via email for comment.