Maps from the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) show the forecasted impact from Hurricane Rafael on the U.S. as the storm churns in the Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday night as a Category 3 hurricane. Its wind speeds have since fallen to 100 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane as it begins a long trek across the Gulf. The newest forecasts anticipate that Rafael will move west, maintaining hurricane strength until Saturday morning, when it will likely weaken to a tropical storm.
The forecast is a shift from earlier in the week, when meteorologists anticipated Rafael taking aim at Louisiana. The storm’s track then shifted to Texas, and has since shifted further south, so the storm is unlikely to make direct landfall in the U.S., given current forecasts.
A map from the National Weather Service shows hurricane warnings, in red, for offshore Florida waters. Tropical storm warnings have been discontinued for the Florida Keys, but a small craft advisory, depicted in light purple,… A map from the National Weather Service shows hurricane warnings, in red, for offshore Florida waters. Tropical storm warnings have been discontinued for the Florida Keys, but a small craft advisory, depicted in light purple, remains.
National Weather Service
Tropical storm warnings in Florida Keys
However, indirect impacts have already begun. Tropical storm conditions were expected in the Florida Keys on Wednesday night, with threats of coastal floods and heavy rain. The warnings were discontinued on Thursday morning, the NWS office in Key West said, though occasional squalls were still expected through the day on Thursday.
A hurricane warning remains in place in offshore Florida waters, and a small craft advisory warns boaters against venturing out in the waters around the Florida Keys.
U.S. beaches expecting dangerous rip currents
Alabama and the Florida panhandle are expecting dangerous ocean conditions and rip currents caused by the storm, NWS meteorologist David Reese told Newsweek. A coastal hazards message is in place for coastal beaches near Mobile, Alabama, and Tallahassee, Florida, and will remain through the weekend. Rip currents and dangerous waves could prompt beaches to close over the weekend, and Reese advised beachgoers to note the beach flags for any closures.
“Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days,” the NHC warned. “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”
Tropical storm force wind probabilities for the U.S. as Hurricane Rafael moves across the Gulf of Mexico. There’s a small possibility that coastal areas in Louisiana and Texas could experience the winds. Tropical storm force wind probabilities for the U.S. as Hurricane Rafael moves across the Gulf of Mexico. There’s a small possibility that coastal areas in Louisiana and Texas could experience the winds. National Hurricane Center
Wind-related impact in the U.S.
There also is a slight risk of tropical storm force winds in some coastal areas, the NHC warned. A map from the NHC showed low probability that coastal Louisiana and a sliver of Texas could experience tropical storm-force winds, which occur when winds are above 39 mph.
“Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week,” the NHC said. “Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.”
It’s unclear if any rain associated with the storm will reach the U.S., aside from what has already fallen in the Florida Keys. The most recent NHC rainfall maps warn of additional rain over Cuba on Thursday and the Yucatan peninsula over the weekend.
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