Vice President Kamala Harris has expanded her path to victory as two major election forecasters shifted their ratings toward the Democratic ticket this week.
Harris has seen a boost in momentum after becoming the Democratic presidential nominee last month when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race. His exit followed concerns among Democrats about his ability to beat Donald Trump in November following a widely panned debate performance and polls showing him trailing the former president in key battleground states.
Although Harris’ poll numbers had been similar to those of Biden before he ended his campaign, her candidacy has renewed enthusiasm among Democrats, and polls now show her making a comeback against Trump.
Several recent polls show her leading Trump in both the national popular vote and key swing states. This week, she is touring those states with her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, to build on that momentum and win over undecided voters.
Newsweek reached out by email to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment.
Kamala Harris speaks during a rally Tuesday in Philadelphia. Two election forecasters shifted their ratings of key swing states toward the vice president this week. Kamala Harris speaks during a rally Tuesday in Philadelphia. Two election forecasters shifted their ratings of key swing states toward the vice president this week. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
The two forecasters, Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, have now shifted their ratings in some battleground states toward Harris.
On Thursday, the Cook Political Report wrote in a press release sent to Newsweek that three swing states, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, previously viewed as leaning Republican were being reclassified as “toss-ups.”
These were three states Biden carried in 2020 but where polls earlier in the summer showed Trump consistently leading against the Democrats.
Biden was viewed as struggling in the Sun Belt, and Democrats viewed Midwestern swing states as a more likely path to victory. Polls in these states now show Harris making the race closer, opening up the Sun Belt as a possible path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory.
Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, wrote in the release, “For the first time in a long time, Democrats are united and energized, while Republicans are on their heels. Unforced errors from both Trump and his vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance have shifted the media spotlight from Biden’s age to Trump’s liabilities. In other words, the presidential contest has moved from one that was Trump’s to lose to a much more competitive contest.”
Meanwhile, on Wednesday Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted Georgia, Minnesota and New Hampshire toward the Democrats.
Georgia, previously viewed as leaning Republican following the June presidential debate, was shifted to a “toss-up.” Analyst J. Miles Coleman wrote that the change was made as “Harris’s numbers have typically been higher, and she has run close to Trump in recent surveys.”
Meanwhile, Minnesota and New Hampshire were both moved to “Likely Democrat” from “Lean Democrat.” The change in Minnesota comes with the selection of Walz as Harris’ vice president, as well as polls consistently showing Harris leading in the state, Coleman wrote.
“So, from what we can tell, while Michigan (along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) remain on a knife’s edge, Minnesota is true to its usual form, as a state that typically leans a few points bluer than the nation as a whole,” he wrote.
Meanwhile, New Hampshire was changed as well. Coleman said it voted to the left of Minnesota in 2020 and noted the state’s slightly higher college education rates and polls similarly showing Harris with a more comfortable lead.
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