Maduro Election Victory Spells Trouble For Kamala Harris

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s disputed election victory spells trouble for Vice President Kamala Harris as the U.S.-Mexico border takes center stage in the race for the presidency.

The presumptive Democratic nominee in the 2024 presidential race faces difficult paths to navigate after Maduro was declared the winner on Sunday, most importantly because the result may lead to what one expert told Newsweek said was likely to be a surge in migration from Venezuelans fleeing his regime.

If that happens, Republican lawmakers who have branded Harris as Biden’s “border czar”—a description seen by her supporters as inaccurate—may attempt to capitalize on her comments about Venezuela to further attack her record on immigration policy and border security, particularly as migrant numbers typically rise between August and October.

Other aspects of the Biden-Harris administration’s policy toward Venezuela, which was an important oil supplier to the U.S. prior to sanctions as well as a source for rare earth elements crucial for emerging technologies, may also come under scrutiny.

The Immigration Issue

Over 545,000 Venezuelans have fled to the U.S. from Maduro’s authoritarian regime, and while that number is far behind the equivalent for countries such as Colombia, Venezuelans have been increasingly climbing up the top-ten list for nationalities encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in recent years.

Polls conducted before the election suggested that up to a third of the population was considering fleeing if Maduro were reelected. This has been primarily driven by economic issues facing the country under his regime—issues that his reelection may exacerbate.

Dr Grace Livingstone, lecturer at the Centre of Latin American Studies at the University of Cambridge, told Newsweek the results could lead to an exodus from Venezuela to the U.S.

Livingstone also warned of “a significant danger of rising violence and political clashes” in the aftermath of the results.

“The results will lead to rising tension in Venezuela, and the opposition will likely call on the US government to increase sanctions and to increase pressure on Maduro. Increased political tensions, possibly increased violence, and potentially tighter US sanctions are very likely to lead to more migration from Venezuela. Already 7 million Venezuelans have left the country.”

During her failed bid for the White House in 2020, Harris tweeted, “What’s happening in Venezuela is a crisis. The people who have fled Maduro’s dictatorial regime deserve safety and protection.”

The Election Issue

Maduro won Sunday’s election with 51.2 percent of the vote, compared with 44.2 percent for his challenger Edmundo González, the country’s electoral center said, but it is widely seen as a rigged vote.

Opposition leader González has questioned the authenticity of the results and has demanded the electoral authorities release voting tallies to verify the results. Maduro, meanwhile, was in a triumphant mood.

“I am Nicolás Maduro Moros—the re-elected president of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela—and I will defend our democracy, our law, and our people,” the 61-year-old told voters in the capital, Caracas.

Maduro shouted, “Long live Chávez. Chávez is alive!” during his speech, as he paid homage to his mentor Hugo Chavez, who anointed Maduro as his successor shortly before he died in 2013.

Sunday’s election was a setback for the Biden administration, which had previously eased sanctions hoping to induce a free and fair vote. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people,” urging electoral officials to publish detailed vote tabulations.

For her part, Harris said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that the country “stands with Venezuela” and called for people to respect the election’s results.

She has called upon Maduro to respect the conditions of the Barbados Accords, an agreement aimed at setting up free elections in the country.

The agreement was signed in Bridgetown, Barbados, by the Maduro government and the Venezuelan opposition Plataforma Unitaria Democrática in October 2023.

An EU spokesperson told Newsweek only a “peaceful” solution will restore “stability” to the region.

“The EU recalls that only a peaceful and democratic solution led by Venezuelans will restore political stability, economic growth, and social welfare to the millions of Venezuelans who face enormous needs,” a spokesperson for the EU said.

The Russia-China Issue

The Biden-Harris administration has had a contentious relationship with the Venezuelan government, as have previous administrations.

Both the Trump and Biden administrations have enforced sanctions on key political leaders in the Venezuelan government, supported opposition figures, and provided humanitarian aid to Venezuelans.

Washington had reinstated sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry after it said Maduro failed to comply with an electoral deal guaranteeing a democratic vote. The U.S. warned Maduro that fraudulent results could lead to additional sanctions for corruption and violation of international human rights law.

In response, Maduro attempted to strengthen diplomatic relations and economic ties with Russia and China, key geopolitical rivals to the U.S. In April, for example, Venezuela and Russia agreed on new shipping route, deepening trade ties between both countries. It highlights an aspect of U.S. foreign policy that some observers say has not succeeded.

“The U.S. does not like having a strong ally of Russia and China in the region. Venezuela used to be an important oil supplier to the United States before it imposed sanctions. After Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. became worried about its energy security and loosened some of the sanctions on Venezuela related to oil—although these were later re-imposed—but these moves show that the US ideally would like access to Venezuelan oil,” Livingstone said.

Harris has opposed the use of military intervention to transport aid into Venezuela. In 2019, she criticized Maduro’s regime for employing violence against his own citizens amid civil unrest.

“The U.S. must immediately condemn Maduro’s violence against his own people. There is no excuse for this,” Harris said in a social media post.

“The Venezuelan military and security forces must demonstrate restraint. Venezuelans deserve a free and fair election and a peaceful transition of power,” she added.

The Biden administration may now face a quandary: either join calls in condemning the election result, which risks encouraging further violence, or hang back in the hope pressure from other countries may force Maduro to negotiate a peaceful transition of power.

In a letter to Biden and Harris, congressional Republicans Mario Diaz-Balart, Maria Salazar and Carlos Gimenez called for “sweeping, robust sanctions” on Venezuela in response to the election result.

If elected to the presidency, such decisions would rest with Harris.

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