MLB Picks: 3 Best Sides Bets for Friday (July 5)

Today is basically day 2.5 of a 4.5-day weekend for most of America, and what better way to celebrate than to (hopefully) win some money. With that in mind, here’s a trio of picks we like today.

Play 1: Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays — Rays moneyline (even) ESPN BET

Shane Baz — who was a first round pick out of high school in 2017 and was a highly-touted prospect before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022, which caused him to miss the rest of that season and all of 2023 — is back in the majors for the Rays tonight, taking on the Texas Rangers in Arlington.

In 10 starts covering 39.1 innings at AAA, Baz’s strikeout numbers are back over 10 per 9 innings, but he has struggled with control and has been the victim of bad BABIP luck, to the tune of .349.

And while the Rangers are obviously a dangerous team, Baz’s talent, along with the fact the Rangers (obviously) haven’t faced him, has me leaning toward Baz easily getting through the lineup the first time, and probably the second time as well. I wouldn’t expect more than that, but it might be enough, as the Rays line up well against opposing pitcher Michael Lorenzen.

Lorenzen is more of a reverse-splits righty, though his career numbers against lefties is nothing to write home about.

Lorenzen is what he is: A guy who doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, a guy who doesn’t walk a ton of batters, a guy who doesn’t give up a ton of homers, but … a guy that does get batted around every now and again. And it’s getting worse.

So far this year, Lorenzen is setting single season “highs” in hard hit percentage (via Statcast) at 41.4%, and barrel rate at 8.6%.

And this Rays projected lineup is the dictionary definition of “pesky,” striking out only 19% of the time, walking 10% of the time, and holding a reasonable wOBA .331.

But against four-seam fastballs, which is Lorenzen’s number one pitch, some power starts creeping up, with five batters sporting ISOs north of .191.

Backing a guy in Baz is a little nerve-wracking, but he has the talent — and the Rays have the bats — to get the W.

Play 2: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — Over 8.5 runs (-110) FanDuel

Take two jabronis, add two decent offenses, shake well, and there’s your over.

The hometown Padres are throwing Randy Vasquez to the hill, who can’t figure out how to translate his minor league success into major league success. For instance, throughout his minor league career, he’s routinely stuck out more than a batter per inning. In the majors, however? It’s nearly halved, with a strikeout rate of 13.7% on the year. He’s also getting barrelled at 9.2% clip.

Simply put, he allows a ton of contact, and a good chunk of that contact is of the dangerous variety.

And the Diamondbacks projected lineup strikes out a mere 20% of the time, features five bats with ISOs over .190 against righties, and a full lineup of players with wOBAs above .300.

Meanwhile, the D-Backs are offering Slade Cecconi to the pitching gods tonight, another semi-dominant minor league arm that is having trouble adjusting to the bright lights of MLB.

He’s giving up nearly two home runs per nine innings pitched, and is giving up an unsightly 15% barrel rate to righties. Meanwhile, he’s getting lucky with lefties, to the tune of a .266 BABIP.

There should be some regression to the mean on the homers and barrel rate, but it probably won’t come tonight against a patient Padres lineup that can string together hits in bunches, starting at the top with Luis Arraez. And it won’t get any easier at the bottom, either, especially if Kyle Higashioka is behind the plate. Why? Because in the last two years, he’s got a whopping .443 ISO against four-seam fastballs, which Cecconi throws half the time.

There’s power and peskiness on both sides of the diamond, and neither pitcher seems particularly up to the task to keeping runs off the board.

Play 3: Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Over 7.5 runs (Even) FanDuel

This one could easily blow up in our faces, as two very good pitchers — Kevin Gausman for the Jays and Luis Castillo for the Mariners — will be toeing the rubber.

But looking at the underlying numbers, both offenses could get to both pitchers, and it could happen quick.

To wit: Gausman is notoriously dominant against righties, although he hasn’t been lights out this year. Meanwhile, lefties hit him with abandon, to the tune of a .216 ISO and .360 wOBA.

Interestingly, he’s getting barrelled at 10%-plus from both sides of the plate.

Meanwhile, the Mariners should be sending five lefties to the dish.

But perhaps more damaging is Gausman’s number one pitch, the four-seam fastball, which he throws nearly 60% of the time. The Mariners projected lineup enjoys seeing that pitch. No less than seven batters have ISOs over .211 against the pitch, and further complicating matters, the team is patient, with five batters in the projected lineup walking over 10% of the time.

Can Gausman’s skills get him through? Of course they can, but the Mariners can just as easily get to him.

Meanwhile, Castillo is another righty with troublesome splits against left-handed batters, giving up a .217 ISO and .368 wOBA.

Luckily for Castillo, he’s only going to see a trio of lefties, but once again, Castillo’s number one pitch — the four-seamer — looks more like a volleyball than a baseball to the Blue Jays projected lineup.

Against that pitch, Bo Bichette has the lowest ISO, at .179. Davis Schneider has the lowest wOBA, at .309.

In short: Gausman and Castillo are like the Spiderman meme, where they’re pointing at each other. This game could easily go 2-1, but it feels like it can just as easily go 8-6. I’ll land in the middle and take the over.

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