A 2-1 day yesterday, and today we look to keep the winning ways rolling with the Orioles, the Rangers, and more runs in Cincy.
Play 1: Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees — Orioles moneyline (-134) FanDuel
The oddsmakers aren’t looking at Luis Gil’s recent form, because if they were, the O’s would be -200 favorites.
Gil came out of the shoot dominant this year, but just like the Yankees as a whole, he has been scuffling of late. His last four outings: 16.2 innings pitched, 18 hits (10 of which went for extra bases), a 15:9 K/BB ratio, and 17 earned runs.
And today he’s facing a team that rocked him a few starts back.
Furthermore, Gil’s main pitch — the four-seam fastball — is attackable by the O’s offense. Six projected starters have ISOs north of .189 against the pitch, and eight of the projected starters have wOBAs above .313.
The Orioles should have no trouble getting to Gil, who could almost certainly use the All-Star break to rest up.
Meanwhile, the injury-plagued Yankees — 8-17 in their last 25 — are going up against Grayson Rodriguez, who’s quietly putting together a solid campaign.
Yes, of course, any lineup that has Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in it is going to be dangerous, but there’s not much else Rodriguez has to worry too much about.
I don’t love laying -134 on anything in baseball, but the bottom line is this line is mispriced. Give me the O’s, who should have no problem with Gil.
Play 2: Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers — Rangers moneyline (-115) Caesars
This looks like another mispriced line to me, as the Rangers are pitching Nathan Eovaldi while the Astros are throwing out Spencer Arrighetti.
Let’s start — and maybe finish — by comparing the numbers of the two pitchers so far this year.
Batters have a .144 ISO and .276 wOBA against Eovaldi; against Arrighetti, it’s .170 ISO and .363 wOBA. Eovaldi’s barrel rate is 6.4%, Arrighetti’s is 7.6%. And while they both strike out about a quarter of batters they face, Eovaldi’s walk rate is 7.5% compared to Arrighetti’s 11.7%.
Looking at the offenses, Houston has been slightly better against righties than Texas, but without Kyle Tucker in the lineup, the Astros aren’t the same squad.
This really comes down to a simple question: Is Eovaldi better than Arrighetti? The answer is an obvious yes. Why the line is near even is beyond me.
Play 3: Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins — Over 9 runs (-110) FanDuel
We took the over yesterday between these two teams at the Great American Ballpark, and we’re going right back to it this afternoon.
The Reds will face — read: tee off — against Edward Cabrera, who is having all kinds of trouble this year. Yes, he’s striking out 30% of batters, but he’s also walking 13.2% of them as well. Meanwhile, when batters make contact, they do so with gusto. A 12.7% barrel rate and a 43% hard hit rate.
Walks + good contact = trouble in Cincy.
It doesn’t help that two of the Reds’ top bats — Elly De La Cruz and Jeimer Candelario — crush both the changeup and the four-seam fastball, Cabrera’s top two pitches.
In fact, eight of the nine projected starters have ISOs over .150 against the four-seamer.
The Reds should plate some runs.
Meanwhile, the Marlins get lefty Andrew Abbott, who is having predictable troubles with righties this year, to the tune of a .209 ISO and .307 wOBA.
And while no one will be confusing the Marlins offense as anything resembling “good,” they will be sending eight righties to the plate (along with Jazz Chisholm) and three of the righties — Bryan De La Cruz, Josh Bell, and Jake Burger — absolutely rake against the four-seamer, which Abbott leans on nearly 60% of the time. Burger, in particular, has video game stats against the pitch over the last two years — a .432 ISO and .474 wOBA.
The Marlins should be able to get at least a few across, making the game total look a few runs shorter than it should be.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
