MLB Prop Picks: 3 Best Bets for Tuesday (June 18)

After yesterday’s travel day, we have a full MLB betting slate to dive into today, Tuesday, June 18. Home run-specific predictions will be covered in our Dinger Tuesday article, so check that out if you are interested, and let’s dive into today’s props!

Play 1: Luis Severino under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110) DraftKings

New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers, 8:05PM ET

This is a number that the right-handed pitcher for the Mets has gone under in three straight starts, and overall he has not gotten to five or more strikeouts in six of 13 starts this season. Generally, fading recent results and betting the opposite of recent trends is the way to go, but not for this play tonight. Severino is going up against the Rangers, and there are just not a lot of strikeout options on this Rangers team.

Despite the fact that the Rangers have struggled against right-handed pitching this season in terms of scoring runs, they have not been striking out a lot. They have a team strikeout rate of 19.9%, which is below average according to FanGraphs. To take it further than that, they do not have a single batter that that strikes out at an “awful” rate of 27.5% or worse, again defined by FanGraphs.

The player with the highest strikeout rate on the Rangers just so happens to be one of their best batters in Adolis Garcia, with a K rate of 26.4% against RHP. The Rangers also have six total batters in their lineup that strikeout below a 20% clip. It is not as though Severino is a good strikeout pitcher, either. He has a strikeout rate of 18.6%, which is the 15th-lowest in the MLB. From there, he has the 12th-lowest swinging strike rate in the MLB and the second-lowest called strike + whiff rate as well. It is tough to see him getting to five strikeouts in this one, making the under a solid play.

Play 2: Alec Marsh over 6.5 Strikeouts (+130) FanDuel

Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics, 9:40PM ET

This is a great value play at the +130 odds while we get to fade the Athletics offense that has struck out more than any other MLB team over the last two weeks against right-handed pitching. The As have a team K rate of 27.9% in the past 14 days, which not only leads the MLB, but they are also the only team with a K rate above 27%, which also makes them the only team with an “awful” team strikeout rate defined by FanGraphs.

They have four guys in their lineup that strike out at an “awful” rate, and three of which who strike out over 30% of the time. Compare that to the Rangers. who did not have a single batter strike out over 27.5% of the time, and you start to see the clear difference between a team you want to target for strikeouts and a team you want to avoid.

If you look at Marsh’s entire season, his strikeout stuff would not wow anyone, but he has been much better recently in that department. After missing seven or more strikeouts in his first five games, he has now gone over this 6.5 number in five of his last seven. In that span, he has a strikeout rate of 26.8%, which would tie him with Zack Wheeler for 17th-highest K rate in the MLB if you extrapolated that out to all qualified pitchers.

Play 3: Framber Valdez under 17.5 Outs (+160) Draftkings

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox, 8:10PM ET

This is another play that is solid from a value perspective, getting this prop all the way at +160 odds. Valdez has generally been good this season, hitting 18+ outs, which means pitching a full six innings, in six of his last 10 starts, and is coming off a complete game two starts ago against the Angels. With that said, we are fading him in this spot tonight.

As bad as the White Sox have been on the season, they have quietly been hitting left-handed pitching really well over the last two weeks. In that span they have the sixth-best wRC+, sixth-best wOBA, fifth-best wRAA with the fourth-best on-base percentage and fifth-best batting average (at .305). Those last two metrics are important for an “under outs” prop as it hopefully means that the White Sox are able to get a bunch of runners on base, upping the pitch count for Valdez.

Valdez is certainly not a bad pitcher by any means, but he is also not a pitcher to be scared of, and is a far cry from the dominant pitcher that he was back in 2022. On the year he has an ERA of 3.99 with an expected ERA of 4.06, showing he has actually been slightly worse than his 3.99 ERA suggests. He allows an average of .252, which is the 19th-highest in the MLB, so this could be a situation where the White Sox are able to rack up the pitch count for Valdez, causing him to go under this prop.

Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.