The rising number of Russian armored vehicle losses over the course of this year may be “impacting” the offensive advancements on certain parts of the front line, according to the U.S.-based independent think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Moscow has suffered extensive equipment losses this year, reaching a two-year high in November, and the loss of armored vehicles, approaching 20,000, may be affecting progress in Kursk.
Newsweek reached out to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for comment via email outside of business hours.
A broken-down armored vehicle rests upside down in Ukraine on November 14, 2024. Russia’s high losses of armored vehicles may affect things on the front lines. A broken-down armored vehicle rests upside down in Ukraine on November 14, 2024. Russia’s high losses of armored vehicles may affect things on the front lines.
Why It Matters
The loss of armored vehicles for Russia is significant because it may impact Moscow’s ability to continue fighting in the war with Ukraine, compounded with the country’s growing shortage regarding manpower. As Russia has been unable to drive the Ukrainian military out of Kursk despite previous deadlines, this goal may be jeopardized due to the extensive loss of armored vehicles.
What To Know
The ISW reported that a social-media source examining Russian military depots through satellite imagery found that “Russian forces have 47 percent of their prewar tank reserves, 52 percent of prewar infantry fighting vehicle reserves, and 45 percent of prewar armored personnel carrier reserves remaining in storage as of a recent unspecified date.”
The ISW’s analysis also said that Russia has made extensive use of its older armored vehicles, including using all of their “prewar T-90 tanks and most of their T-80 tanks thus far but still have most of their older T-72, T-64/62, and T-54/55 tanks in storage.” The ISW added that certain areas of the front line, including Siversk and Kupiansk, which have seen less fighting in recent months, may have more armored vehicles than Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine’s post on X, formerly known as Twitter, said Russian forces lost 30 armored vehicles today, amounting to a total of 19,945. In terms of equipment, Russia also lost 10 artillery systems, nine tanks, 44 UAVs, 47 vehicles and fuel tanks, and three pieces of special equipment today.
Russian losses of armored vehicles were high in the beginning months of the war, and then decreased from June 2022 to September of 2023, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s figures. Moscow has seen an increase in the loss of armored fighting vehicles from October of last year until November, in which they slightly fell this month to 546, and reached their peak at nearly 1,000 per month.
Russian forces have advanced in Kursk with the help of North Korean troops recently and made gains in the southeastern outskirts of Darino, the northern outskirts of Kruglenkoye, east of Novoivanovka, and southeast of Korenevo, according to the ISW’s offensive campaign assessment on December 21.
What People Are Saying
In another post on X, the Defense Ministry of Ukraine wrote: “#2024MOD_Recap—Day 10 We are almost at the end, so today we recap October. This month marked the largest loss of armored vehicles in the Russian Army. 923 units were destroyed or damaged in just one month. On average, Ukrainian warriors destroyed 30 AFVs every day. Great job.”
What Happens Next
It remains to be seen how Vladimir Putin will make up for Russia’s increasing loss of armored vehicles and how this will affect the overall war effort, particularly the offensive in Kursk.
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