Where Brackets Stand a Month From Selection Sunday

Bracket mania has nearly arrived.

College basketball is now only a month away from March Madness. The 68-team fields for both the men’s and women’s National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA) basketball tournaments will be revealed during their respective Selection Sunday shows on March 17.

With that big day rapidly approaching, the 2024 NCAA Division I men’s and women’s basketball selection committees recently released a peak at how the top of each bracket currently stacks up. Leading up to this weekend’s games, which have already thrown some curveballs into the mix, the top 16 teams in each tournament were unveiled. Combine that with some expert bracketology, and March Madness is starting to come together. Plenty can change in the coming weeks, perhaps most notably during conference tournament play, but here’s a look at how the “Big Dance” could shake up entering the final stretch—from the top of the line to the bubble.

NCAA Men’s Tournament Top Seeds, Bubble Watch

Purdue, UConn, Houston and Arizona were revealed as the one-seeds on the men’s side on Saturday as part of the NCAA’s mock bracket preview. The Boilermakers earned the top-overall seed, besting the defending-champion Huskies. All 12 committee members, chair Charles McClelland said, for the first time in this exercise had the exact same order for the four one seeds.

The full top-16, starting at the top, went: Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee, Marquette, Kansas, Alabama, Baylor, Iowa State, Duke, Auburn, San Diego State, Illinois and Wisconsin. That translates, from a bracket perspective, to this:

Midwest (Detroit)

1. Purdue
2. Tennessee
3. Baylor
4. San Diego State

East (Boston)

1. UConn
2. North Carolina
3. Iowa State
4. Wisconsin

South (Dallas)

1. Houston
2. Marquette
3. Alabama
4. Illinois

West (Los Angeles)

1. Arizona
2. Kansas
3. Duke
4. Auburn

According to the NCAA, better than 83 percent of teams included in these reveals have remained among the top four seeds when the actual brackets are announced. Last year, per The Athletic, all four of the early No. 1 seeds held on to their status, as did three of the No. 2 seeds.

These rankings took into account games through Friday, and since then there has already been some chaos that could alter the projects. Top-seeded Purdue, who memorably lost to a 16-seed last year, was upset on the road by unranked Ohio State on Sunday. Between that and UConn’s decisive 81-53 win over Marquette on Saturday, the Huskies should safely be in the top slot. At least for now. As for other notable recent results among these teams, Auburn lost at home to Kentucky on Saturday, Kansas earned a top-25 road win and Wisconsin fell at Iowa in overtime.

As for the bottom of the bracket, ESPN’s latest bracketology lists Butler, Boise State, TCU and Nebraska as the tournament’s last four byes, then Ole Miss, Nevada, Utah and Gonzaga as the last four in. Wake Forest, Providence, Seton Hall and Cincinnati are currently projected as the first four out, and St. John’s, Villanova, Colorado and Memphis are the next four out.

ESPN’s projections, which were last updated on Friday, have the Big 12 and SEC (nine teams each) sending the most teams to March Madness on the men’s side this year.

NCAA Women’s Tournament Top Seeds, Bubble Watch

South Carolina, Stanford, Ohio State and Colorado—in that order—make up the four No. 1 seeds in the women’s sneak peak at the top-16 released on Thursday.

And, if the season had ended this weekend, Iowa, North Carolina State, UCLA and Texas would be right behind on the two-line. The full reveal, starting with the highest seed, went: South Carolina, Stanford, Ohio State, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina State, UCLA, Texas, Southern California, Virginia Tech, Oregon State, UConn, Kansas State, LSU, Indiana and Louisville.

Through a bracket lens, that would look like

Albany Regional 1

1. South Carolina
2. UCLA
3. UConn
4. Louisville

Portland Regional 2

1. Stanford
2. Texas
3. Oregon State
4. Indiana

Albany Regional 3

1. Ohio State
2. NC State
3. Southern California
4. LSU

Portland Regional 4

1. Colorado
2. Iowa
3. Virginia Tech
4. Kansas State

South Carolina is the only undefeated team remaining in the country, currently boasting the No. 1 AP ranking, a 25-0 record and a 12-0 mark in SEC play.

“The only obvious choice in this first reveal was South Carolina as the top overall seed, with the other 15 seeding decisions being a significant challenge,” said Lisa Peterson, senior associate commissioner of the Pac-12 Conference and chair of the Division I Women’s Basketball Committee, in a release. “The race is on for teams to provide clarity…before Selection Sunday with a lot of big games upcoming for all of the teams involved.”

These rankings took into account games through Wednesday. Notably since then, Colorado lost to Utah and UCLA fell against Oregon State on Friday, Louisville dropped a Sunday matchup with Virginia Tech, and either USC or Oregon State will suffer a loss in their Sunday afternoon meeting.

Looking toward the teams on the edge of a March Madness spot, and Washington State, Green Bay, Tennessee and Texas A&M were considered the last four byes, according to ESPN’s methodology. Iowa State, Michigan, Auburn and Vanderbilt were the last four in; Maryland, St. Joseph’s, Villanova and Kansas were the first four out; and Arkansas, California, Columbia and George Mason were considered the next four out.

ESPN predicts that the ACC and SEC (nine teams each) will have the most teams dancing.

When Do the NCAA Tournaments Start?

The men’s tournament selection show will air at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 17 on CBS, and the women’s program will follow shortly after at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.

From there, the March Madness schedules will look like this:

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Schedule

• First Four: March 19-20
• First round: March 21-22
• Second round: March 23-24
• Sweet 16: March 28-29
• Elite Eight: March 30-31
• Final Four: April 6 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
• NCAA championship game: April 8 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament Schedule

• First Four: March 20-21
• First round: March 22-23
• Second round: March 24-25
• Sweet 16: March 29-30
• Elite Eight: March 31-April 1
• Final Four: Friday, April 5 at 7:30 and 9 p.m. ET on ESPN, hosted at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio.
• NCAA championship game: Sunday, April 7 at 3 p.m. ET on ABC, at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio.