Who Is Winning the Election in Arizona? Kari Lake vs. Ruben Gallego Updates

Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego are fighting for a Senate seat in Arizona, both hoping to represent the state in Congress.

Lake, a staunch Trump ally who became a household name after the 2022 election, has attracted national attention to her race, with both campaigns mobilizing resources and trying to energize voters. The Senate seat was left open after Senator Kyrsten Sinema decided not to run for re-election and has the potential to shift control of the Senate.

Shortly after polls closed, Gallego was leading with 53 percent of the vote, according to NBC News projections. At the time, 49 percent of the vote had been counted.

Lake, a former television news anchor, built her campaign around issues that resonate with the Republican base. Her political messaging focuses on border security, election integrity, and limiting government overreach.

Since jumping into politics, Lake has been a controversial figure, particularly for her repeated claims of election fraud in the 2020 presidential race, which have endeared her to Trump loyalists but alienated more moderate and independent voters. Lake also challenged her own gubernatorial election, claiming she was the rightful winner in 2022.

Despite her initial skepticism toward early voting—a hallmark of her criticism of election procedures—Lake pivoted and actively encouraged Republicans to vote early in Tuesday’s election. Lake’s shift came as Trump and other Republicans also changed their messaging after the 2020 election when early voting turned the tide for President Joe Biden. As part of this effort, she launched an “Early Voting Bus Tour,” emphasizing that early voting is crucial for ensuring Republican victories.

“We need to bank our votes just like the Democrats do,” she said during a campaign event, according to the New York Post.

Gallego, a five-term congressman and Marine Corps veteran, has advocated for policies focused on healthcare access, immigration reform, and veterans’ affairs. Gallego represents Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, which includes much of central Phoenix, and has made a name for himself as a pragmatic progressive willing to work across the aisle on certain issues. His campaign highlights his experience in Congress and his service in the Iraq War, appealing to Arizona’s significant population of veterans and working-class voters. Gallego has also been critical of Kari Lake’s election denial rhetoric, arguing that such claims threaten democratic institutions.

Polling ahead of the election showed the race was either candidate’s to win. An Emerson College poll conducted between October 30 and November 2 found Gallego leading Lake by 5 points. A poll from Insider Advantage that was conducted between November 1 and 2 found a closer contest with Gallego only leading Lake by 2 points.

Trafalgar Group, a Republican polling company, conducted a survey between November 1 and 3 and concluded that the race was tied between the two candidates.

The candidates clashed in their one and only debate on October 9, where border security, immigration, and economic policy took center stage. Lake accused Gallego of supporting “open borders” and argued that his policies would worsen the immigration crisis. Gallego countered that Lake’s stance on immigration is overly simplistic and ignores the complexities of border management. He also criticized her past election fraud claims, asserting that such rhetoric undermines trust in democratic processes.

The significance of this Senate race extends beyond Arizona. Both parties view it as a key battleground that could determine control of the Senate, which is currently evenly split. Arizona’s growing population, increasingly diverse demographics, and status as a swing state have made it a focal point for national political strategy.

Lake’s campaign leaned heavily on conservative enthusiasm, hoping that Arizona’s rightward-leaning rural areas would turn out in force. Lake also was betting that problems at the border would push voters to cast a ballot for her.

A New York Times/Siena College poll found the economy was the top issue for Arizona voters, closely followed by immigration.

At the same time, Gallego banked on strong support from urban and suburban voters, particularly among the state’s growing Latino population. He has also made a concerted effort to reach independent and moderate voters who are disillusioned with extremism from either side. This strategy is crucial, given that Arizona’s electorate is nearly evenly split among Democrats, Republicans, and independents.