Former Democratic North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper leads Republican candidate Michael Whatley for the state’s open U.S. Senate seat on Kalshi, a regulated U.S.-based prediction market—and Cooper’s odds reached a new high this week.
The Senate election in North Carolina, a battleground state, will likely be among the most competitive races in this year’s midterms, particularly after Republican Thom Tillis opted against running for another term.
The Tar Heel State’s contest is critical because it could determine control of the U.S. Senate. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority and Democrats view flipping this seat as one of their few viable paths to reclaiming the upper chamber, while Republicans see it as essential to maintaining their lead.
Newsweek reached out to Whatley’s campaign via email on Wednesday for comment.
Why It Matters
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms, while Democrats are also hopeful President Donald Trump’s approval ratings—which most polls show have dropped in recent months—give them an additional boost this year. Trump is also polling poorly on policy issues like immigration, the economy and the cost of living.
But federal races in North Carolina have proved elusive for Democrats, who have not won the state at the Senate or presidential level since 2008.
Trump has backed Whatley in the race, adding another layer of potential intensity.
What To Know
Tracking on Kalshi of the North Carolina Senate race has slightly shifted this month, possibly signaling a continued lack of confidence in Republicans retaining control of the seat.
According to Kalshi, traders are pricing a Democratic win for Cooper at roughly 87 percent on Wednesday, compared with about 14 percent for Whatley. Cooper hit the new high on Monday after being at about 85 percent for nearly two weeks.
Last year around this time, on April 2, 2025, traders priced Cooper at roughly 49 percent versus Whatley’s 51 percent. On April 6, 2025, Cooper was priced at 57.7 percent versus Whatley’s 42.3 percent. The Republican never retook the lead on Kalshi, the site shows.
Similarly, on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, Democrats have an 87 percent chance of winning the North Carolina Senate seat versus a 13 percent chance for Republicans, according to the site.
A recent poll from High Point University Survey Research Center and YouGov shows Cooper with 50 percent support among likely voters to Whatley’s 42 percent. Among registered voters, Cooper has 49 percent to Whatley’s 39 percent. According to the survey, 6 percent of likely voters are unsure, as are 9 percent of registered voters.
The poll surveyed 800 North Carolinians from March 26 to April 6 and has a credibility mark of 4.1 percent for self-identified registered voters and 4.3 percent for likely voters.
What Happens Next
The general election is scheduled for November 3 and both campaigns are expected to intensify outreach in the remaining months.
