The United States lost its final game of pool play to Italy 8-6 and is now in danger of not qualifying for the quarterfinals.
After the loss, there is now a scenario where there is a three-way 3-1 tie at the top of Pool B between the United States, Italy and Mexico. If Mexico beats Italy on Wednesday, the tiebreaker to decide which teams advance would be the quotient of runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded between the three teams in games against each other.
What Needs To Happen For Team USA To Qualify Now
After the United States loss to Italy, the team has allowed a total of 11 runs in games against Mexico and Italy. After dividing that by the 54 outs they recorded in those games there quotient comes out to 0.2037037.
That number only matters if Italy loses to Mexico. The easiest way for the United States to advance to the quarterfinals is for Italy to beat Mexico. Italy has Aaron Nola scheduled to start. If Mexico beats Italy, that quotient number becomes very important. Mexico allowed five runs to the United States and Italy allowed six runs.
If Team USA wishes to qualify with a Mexico win, Mexico needs to score at least five runs. If Mexico scores at least five runs, Italy’s quotient would be higher than the United States, thus placing the United States at least in the top two of Pool B. These calculations were made assuming Italy and Mexico do not play an extra-innings game.
The reason that works is because if Mexico scores five runs, Italy will have allowed 11 runs, with either 51, 52, 53 or 54 outs recorded. If Italy records 54 outs, it either means they won the game, making the tiebreaker unnecessary, or the game went into extra innings. If the game goes beyond nine innings, the United States fate cannot be determined until the game is officially over and total outs can be calculated.
In short, an Italy win gets the United States through, and a Mexico win only gets them through if Mexico scores at least five against Italy in a nine-inning game.
An extra-innings game could force the pool to be decided by the next set of tiebreakers. The next tiebreakers, in order, are:
- Earned runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded between the teams tied.
- Highest batting average in games between the teams tied.
- A drawing of lots, conducted by WBCI.
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